The Dutch manufacturing industry is showing tentative signs of recovery. After more than two years of contraction, an upward trend has set in since autumn 2024. However, uncertainty remains high. For instance, entrepreneurs are struggling to make reliable forecasts, partly due to unexpected events such as import duties and the crisis in Iran. Kees de Schipper, Sector Manager Industry at Rabobank, lists the main developments in the Dutch manufacturing industry and looks ahead.
Clear differences can be seen within the manufacturing industry. The chemical industry, for instance, is experiencing particular difficulties due to relatively high energy prices, which affect its competitive position. Mechanical engineering, on the other hand, is showing a slight recovery, but has to compete with Chinese machinery marketed at dumping prices. The metal products industry is also facing challenges. There is overcapacity in the market and strong price pressure, putting further pressure on already limited margins.
Cooperation as key to success
At ESEF Maakindustrie and TechniShow 2026, innovation will take centre stage, focusing among other things on the concept of the Factory of the Future. Companies will show their new innovations and concepts, and demonstrate how they work together.
Schipper calls collaboration crucial. "The manufacturing industry must start working together differently in order to respond to all the new technological opportunities that are arising. Intensive cooperation makes it possible to offer total concepts that allow you to stand out in the market," he says. Think of the Brainport region. "You can clearly see here what cooperation can deliver."
At the same time, he points to the importance of process innovation. "Companies need to do more with less, especially in view of the large shortage of technical staff. Optimising production processes is therefore essential," De Schipper explains.
Future-proofing: innovation and workforce
To be future-proof, you have to keep innovating. "Innovation is actually the only constant in the manufacturing industry," says De Schipper. "Companies have to keep surprising customers and differentiate themselves. For instance, more and more companies are offering services. After all, customers are not waiting for products, but for solutions."
The energy issue remains a major factor. "Companies need to think about their future energy mix and how they will manage its availability." Collaboration through energy hubs and the more efficient use of existing connections can offer solutions.
Human resource management is also a key concern. "Staff is your most valuable asset," says De Schipper. "Personnel policy is therefore very important to be future-proof. We see big differences in the manufacturing industry. Some companies do a fantastic job of attracting and retaining talent, but there are also many parties that underinvest in this."
The manufacturing industry in 2040
Rabobank looks ahead in its vision for the manufacturing industry in 2040, based on input from customers and stakeholders. "Labour productivity needs to increase by 50% to maintain the growth of recent decades. The tight labour market and ageing population make this a huge challenge. For instance, the manufacturing industry is ageing above average, while the influx of new talent is limited," explains De Schipper. AI can help improve labour productivity, although De Schipper cautions that the technology is not a panacea.
The manufacturing industry will look different in 2040 than it does today. Energy supply and raw materials will be used differently, with more electrification and less dependence on fossil fuels. Supply chains will become shorter and Europe will produce more itself. Circular production will become the norm, helping to reduce dependence on scarce raw materials.
Rabobank expects the manufacturing industry as a whole to be the same size in 2040 as it is today, but its composition has changed. High-tech is growing, while traditional, energy-intensive industries are shrinking. Green chemistry, based on bio-based raw materials and renewable energy, is taking off.
What Rabobank can do for entrepreneurs
Rabobank supports manufacturing companies in achieving their growth and innovation ambitions. Not only with suitable financing solutions for investments in machinery, sustainability or process optimisation, but also through sector knowledge, network events and access to partners in the chain. Rabobank also actively contributes ideas on topics such as digitalisation, energy transition, supply chain strategies and business transfer. In this way, they help entrepreneurs to be better prepared, more agile and future-proof in a rapidly changing world.
Want to know more about the developments Rabobank foresees for Dutch manufacturing? Then also read the March 2026 sector forecast.
