In just over 40 years, half of all products will be made with the 3D printer. At least, that is to be expected if the development of 3D printing continues at the current pace and with the existing investments. That development will in turn influence global trade and have a huge impact on the Dutch ports, wholesale companies and logistics sector, among others. That is one of the conclusions of a recently published report by ING.
Recently, there have been a lot of mostly postive news stories appearing when it comes to 3D printing. The techniques in this field are becoming more and more advanced, and in many cases this results in more efficient, faster and more economical production. As a result, the potential of 3D printing is increasingly being embraced in the manufacturing industry. ING's report '3D printing: a threat to global trade' also makes a small comment on the development of this 21st-century technology.
Domestic
Currently, the share of 3D printed goods in global production is still small, but investment in 3D printers has been rising three times faster than investment in traditional manufacturing over the past five years. '3D printing brings significant benefits, including cost savings. Manufacturing with 3D printers requires much less human intervention. As a result, labour costs are not as decisive when choosing production locations,' says Raoul Leering, head of international trade research at the ING Economics Department. 'Instead of importing products from low-wage countries, they can be printed domestically,' Leering said.
ING says the relatively small aerospace and medical devices industries are leading the way when it comes to 3D printing, with hips and hearing aids, for example, largely made domestically with 3D printers. Yet it is right other industries that have the biggest downward impact on global trade due to 3D printing growth. The automotive, consumer goods and mechanical engineering industries are also investing heavily in 3D printers and have a much larger share of world trade.
Netherlands becomes vulnerable
According to Leering, the weakening of world trade growth will have negative consequences for the Netherlands mainly in the ports, international wholesale trade and the transport and logistics sector. 'These are heavily dependent on world trade. Not only because of the many imports and exports for and by the Dutch, but also because of the Netherlands' function as a transit country. For instance, transporting (re)exports alone generates €31 billion in turnover for this sector. Logistics service providers doing warehousing and European distribution from the Netherlands will start to notice this.'
Domestic customers
In addition, the rise of 3D printing may also cause Dutch companies to start thinking about adapting production processes and looking for new customers. 'The number of foreign customers will decrease as countries become more self-sufficient and thus start to import less. But the Netherlands is also going to import less, so at the same time the possibility of finding more customers in the domestic market is increasing.'
One consequence of 3D printing is that the US trade deficit is expected to narrow relatively quickly. The US imports more industrial goods than it exports, so replacing imports with locally printed goods will generate more additional domestic production than is lost elsewhere due to falling exports. Especially since the US imports above average automotive and consumer goods, two of the industries at the forefront of 3D printing. As a result, politically sensitive bilateral deficits with China, Germany and Mexico could start to fall.
Barriers
To identify the potential long-term potential of 3D printing, ING interviewed a number of people from the 3D printing industry. 'The impact of 3D printing on the economy is hugely underestimated,' says Lodewijk van der Borg, CEO of Dutch Kaak Group. 'I expect that in the next 10 or 20 years about half of all industrial products will be made with 3D printers.' The Kaak Group started using a 3D printer to make moulds for baking bread last year.
Eric Sas, the CFO of Ultimaker, a manufacturer of 3D printers, is a bit more cautious in his prediction about the teo future of 3D printing. He expects further growth, but dares not say how big the market share will be. He still sees many hurdles to overcome.
'It is difficult to estimate how fast this technology will grow,' says Lauren Slowik of Shapeways. She thinks 3D printing will not enter all industries because the cost of producing 3D printed goods is still too high for some industries.
Although the 3D printing market is now growing and thriving, besides the high costs Slowik mentions, there are also factors that could hinder development. ING mentions, among others, the fact with most common 3D printers, rapid production is not possible, certain natural materials, such as wood, cannot be used in 3D printers and a shortage of skilled designers. Also, the quality of 3D printed products is still often disappointing.
By: Kelly Bakker
Source: ING '3D printing: a threat to global trade'
