The number of vehicles worldwide with at least level 1 autonomy will rise from 31.4 million in 2019 to 54.2 million units in 2024. This represents an annualised increase of 11.5% over a five-year period.
This is predicted by research firm IDC. Incidentally, this includes not only new vehicles delivered from the factory with level 1 autonomy, but also vehicles in which driver assistance systems have been fitted after production.
Five levels
IDC hereby uses the definition of autonomous driving as set out in the Society of Automotive Engineers' J3016 'Levels of Driving Automation' standard. This definition distinguishes between five levels of autonomous driving:
- SAE level 0 - no automation: All dynamic driving tasks are performed by the human driver.
- SAE level 1 - driving support: autonomous driving functions can provide support in some situations by actively steering or braking/accelerating for certain driving tasks. The driver remains responsible and in control of the vehicle and all other dynamic functions.
- SAE level 2 - partial driving autonomy: Autonomous driving functions can provide support in some situations by actively steering or braking/accelerating for specific dynamic driving tasks. The driver is expected to pay attention and remain in control. He or she remains responsible for all other dynamic functions.
- SAE level 3 - conditional automation: The autonomous driving system performs all dynamic driving tasks for the driver under certain weather and road conditions. The driver must always be ready to intervene and actively take control of the vehicle if the autonomous driving system deems it necessary.
- SAE level 4 - high level of automation: when enabled, the autonomous driving system performs all dynamic driving tasks for the driver under certain weather and road conditions. The driver's presence or attention is not required.
- SAE level 5 - fully autonomous driving: When enabled, the autonomous driving system can perform all dynamic driving tasks in all weather and road conditions. Driver presence or attention is not required.
Fewer and fewer vehicles with level 0 automation
The vast majority of vehicles currently produced worldwide are not equipped with driver assistance or autonomous driving systems and thus fall into SAE level 0. A combination of factors is causing the number of level 0 vehicles to decline in the coming years. These include laws and regulations, consumer preferences, investment by car manufacturers, cost efficiency and technological developments. IDC predicts that by 2024, more than half of all vehicles produced will offer at least level 1 autonomy.
The number of vehicles with level 1 and level 2 autonomy is expected to increase the most in the coming years. Car manufacturers are also investing the most in these levels of autonomous driving until 2024, which means there are also the most developments in this area. By requiring drivers to remain vigilant and in control of the vehicle itself while using these technologies, this level of autonomy provides less risk and more acceptable responsibilities for both car manufacturers and lawmakers.
Sentiment about SAE level 3 technology improved
IDC reports that sentiment among manufacturers about SAE level 3 technology has improved, including about its use on highways. The research firm expects level 3 systems to be increasingly built into vehicles by 2024. Fully autonomous level 4 and 5 vehicles remain far away for now. The development and implementation of these driving systems in vehicles requires significant developments in technology, customer readiness and government legislation, according to the research firm. Consequently, IDC does not expect level 5 autonomous vehicles to be on the road by 2024.
Vehicles with SAE level 3 to 5 autonomy are considered "highly automated vehicles" by IDC. The research firm expects the number of vehicles in this category to rise from only a limited number in 2019 to over 850,000 units in 2024.
“The path towards greater vehicle autonomy is largely built on incremental developments in terms of features and capabilities,” says Matt Arcaro, Research Director for Next-Generation Automotive and Transportation Strategies at IDC. “Although fully self-driving SAE Level 4 vehicles will receive a great deal of media attention and deliver significant value to society, the impact of the growth in SAE Level 1 and 2 vehicles over the forecast period is too significant to ignore.” Further information on IDC’s research can be found here.
Netherlands well prepared
A recent study by KPMG revealed that the Netherlands is the second-best-prepared country in the world – after Singapore – for the arrival of self-driving cars. The Netherlands scores highly in areas such as infrastructure, policy and regulation. Incidentally, in previous editions of the KPMG study, the Netherlands scored even higher; it ranked first in both 2018 and 2019.
Author: Wouter Hoeffnagel
