Momentum in electric vehicle market shifts from China to Europe this year. Car manufacturers are expected to supply 2.5 million electric cars in 2020, up more than 20% from 2019.
This is according to figures from BloombergNEF (BNEF), a research service of financial services provider Bloomberg L.P. China has been the largest market for electric cars worldwide for several years. The Asian country will continue to dominate the market in 2020 as well.
60% growth in European market
The Chinese government reduced subsidies on electric cars on 1 July 2019. This is a major contributor to the market's shift in growth momentum towards Europe, according to BNEF. However, new electric models becoming available in the European market are also contributing to this. Car manufacturers are expected to deliver around 800,000 electric vehicles to European customers in 2020. This is 60% more than in 2019.
“The long-term outlook is very positive, but in the short term we expect growth to be relatively limited,” says Colin McKerracher, an analyst at BloombergNEF. According to McKerracher, the transition from a market based on direct subsidies to one driven, amongst other things, by consumer demand
is, according to McKerracher, only halfway through.
'Price of lithium-ion batteries should continue to fall'
For the embrace of electric cars, BloombergNEF calls it crucial that the price of lithium-ion batteries continues to fall. The price is expected to fall further to $135 per kilowatt-hour this year. This is 13% lower than in 2019 and 89% lower than a decade ago. The research firm expects prices to fall further as production volumes continue to rise and battery design efficiencies increase.
The number of electric vehicle charging stations worldwide is expected to rise to 1.2 million, up from 880,000 in 2019. This is mainly due to efforts by governments and energy companies to expand critical infrastructure. BloombergNEV points out that as more cars are connected to the energy grid, the demand for energy will also fluctuate more. Governments and energy companies face the challenge of accommodating these fluctuations.
Substantially more charging stations needed
Research by Transport & Environment, a campaign group committed to clean transport in Europe, shows that the number of charging stations in the European Union (EU) needs to rise sharply in the coming years. In the Green Deal, the EU expresses its ambition to be CO2 neutral by 2050. To achieve this goal, the EU needs an estimated 3 million public charging points to charge around 44 million electric vehicles by 2030. There are currently 185,000 charging posts available.
"The Green Deal for transport can only be realised with the help of emission-free infrastructure. This requires investment in setting up a network of public charging stations, especially at home and at work, and not in building more fossil gas pipelines. So far, the number of charging points keeps up with demand, but the coming electric wave needs to be supported by a substantial expansion of the charging network," says Lucien Mathieu, e-mobility analyst at Transport & Environment.
The campaign group's figures are based on a new measurement method for charging infrastructure. This measurement method was developed to help regulators set targets and determine how many charging stations are needed.
Netherlands leads in number of charging stations
Incidentally, in terms of the number of charging stations, the Netherlands is doing well compared to other EU member states. Over 50,000 public charging stations are currently available in the Netherlands, according to figures from Transport & Environment, putting our country in the lead. Sweden and Belgium follow closely behind. By 2030, almost 115,000 public charging stations should be accessible in the Netherlands. In Belgium, there are more than 90,000 and in Sweden more than 85,000.
Author: Wouter Hoeffnagel
